Showing posts with label Magic the Gathering. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Magic the Gathering. Show all posts

Friday, October 28, 2016

Making Money on Rotation - RTR Edition


It was just over two years ago that we saw the release of Khans of Tarkir, the addition of Onslaught Fetches into modern, and the rotation of Return to Ravnica out of standard. This represented the rotation out of the second set in the Magic Boom era of the early 2010s which is generally considered to have begun with Innistrad. Historically there rotation has been considered the best time to pickup eternal playables for long term gains a couple of years after rotation. 

Innistrad stood as a fairly major aberration as far as the unprecedented growth of Magic colliding with a printrun that struggled to keep up with demand. The following sets saw a much greater print run and a generally more stable power level of cards. Return to Ravnica represents the first block in the Magic Boom era that was printed to meet the rising demand levels. Surprisingly, four years after release. Boxes of RTR still run at approximately the same price as they did while they were in print.

The question I want to address here is if there is still money to be made in purchasing cards at rotation. The current changes to Standard rotation matter only a little when looking at this overall perspective since cards will still be rotating out. Someone picking up Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil at rotation could have easily seen a 150% gain. I believe that the future sets will have far more in common with RTR than they had with Innistrad with regards to print quantity. For comparison we’ll be looking at three different groups of cards. Rotating standard staples, eternal staples not relevant in standard, and casual cards.

Rotating Standard Staples


While looking back to the end of 2014 may not be the joy of anyone who was involved in standard at that point. We have a pretty clear picture of the metagame throughout the Theros Block revolving around three colors, and three decks. Theros was the age of Mono-Black Devotion, Mono-Blue Devotion, and Esper Control. By the end of the block we actually did begin to see the growth of a few other archetypes that were a derivative of these decks (Azorious Control and Orzohov Midrange) there was only ever fringe decks that existed outside of these colors such as R/G Monsters.

Interestingly enough the majority of these decks were heavily based on devotion cards from Theros block and only somewhat reliant on cards from Return to Ravnica outside of the Esper Control deck. The key cards from RTR for these decks include standard wonders such as Packrat, Nightveil Specter, Desecration Demon and Underworld Connections which have all fallen to essentially worthless in the modern era as they had no application outside of standard.

The cards in the Esper Control build were somewhat more durable but have suffered a number of other setbacks. Jace, Architect of Thought received a duel deck printing and has only been a rare occurrence in the sideboard of Modern decks essentially killing it’s value. Sphinx’s Revelation dropped off sharply and sees occasional play in Legacy. Of the heavily played RTR cards it seems that only Supreme Verdict managed to maintain significant comparative value. It has managed to spike to match it’s standard high price of almost $7 dollars and is now worth around $5 compared to its rotation price of $3 making it a fair investment but not a particularly good one.





Lands



The Shock Land cycle in RTR block was a significant reprinting that likely pushed sales heavily throughout the print cycle. Not surprisingly these remain some of the most valuable cards from the block. Perhaps more surprising is the limited gains these cards have had. Near rotation the majority of the shock lands were available for between 7-10$. At peak supply they were between 4-7$. Comparing Steam Vents’ rotation price to the current price we see only about a $2 gain from 10$ to 12$. While there was a spike putting it into the $15 period, but even this 50% gain requiring perfect timing is pretty insignificant considering the price of the card and the time it would have to be held.
This same story plays out pretty similarly for the other lands with several not even receiving such significant gains. The land cycle still represents the best investment of standard cards for long term holds but the belief that they would become $20 within a year seem to have been largely unfounded. We see only moderate gains two years out and in several cases cards have trending downwards for the past few months, even though it has been modern PPTQ season. While I wouldn’t advise against picking up your playsets of lands like these around rotation. I have my doubts that it’s the best place to sit investment money.

Sideboard Cards


One other area to look at are the Standard sideboard cards, several of which have found a home in sideboards of eternal decks. Cards like Rest in Peace and Pithing Needle maintained fairly low prices throughout Standard being available for a dollar or less at rotation. Now these cards have seen a significant rise with Pithing Needle at around $2.5 and Rest in Peace around $5. Additionally, Cyclonic Rift has seen a bounce from around $3 to about $6 for a decent double up. Much like Stony Silence out of Innistrad, sideboard cards don’t tend to hold significant value in standard but have a lot more potential to grow outside of standard. To me this signifies that in the future I’d be interested in looking into sideboard cards with eternal playability as significant post rotation gainers.


Cards Not Relevant in Standard


There’s this weird issue in standard where there are some really powerful cards that don’t find a deck to slot into in the format. These cards often times make an immediate impact on Modern or Legacy without being relevant in the standard metagame. This isn’t for cards like Snapcaster Mage which have a broad impact on multiple formats. The best example of this kind of card is Abrupt Decay. While clearly a powerful card, the impact on Legacy has been much more significant than the impact ever was on standard. 

Abrupt Decay represents one of the best opportunities from RTR block for significant profit after rotation, but there’s a difficult twist. From a standard low price of $5.5 the card had gone up to $12 at rotation with the birth of Abzan as a viable deck in Modern. While the card continued to spike to a price over $17 it has since cooled off significantly and finds itself back under the $10 range. Once again, a card seems to have dropped below its rotation price after a significant spike. Is there long term upside in Abrupt Decay? My feeling is probably not. It’s a card that is likely to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2017 which could put it around the $5 mark for the foreseeable future. While it is clearly a powerful card, the opportunity to cash in on it didn’t come at rotation and left fairly early. Most of the upside is gone at this point.

Another card with a somewhat similar trajectory is Voice of Resurgence. As the only notable card in Dragon’s Maze it has managed to hold its price despite being played very little in any format. Modern Zoo decks seem to be the main home for the card where it presents a certain level of protection against mass board clear but for the most part it is bolstered by being the only relevant card in a much maligned set. With a significant initial price of over $40 the price leveled out to around $18 for quite a while through rotation. It saw a significant spike back to the $40 price range as a response to the eldrazi menace and since has tapered off to around $27. Right now it’s not something I’d want to be holding long term as it is ripe for a reprint and it’s only real value comes from being the only decent mythic in bad small set. 

RTR block, overall didn’t add much to the overall Eternal metagame outside of these few cards. Unlike some sets where key commons or uncommons become eternal staples, there is very little attractive from this block to look at as long term holds. While some of the eternal playable cards offered the potential for a mid-term gain about a year out, none of them are places I’d currently want to have my money tied up. Other cards that see eternal play like Boros Charm, Experiment One,


Casual Cards


There hasn’t been huge casual appeal out of RTR. One card that looked poised to become huge was Sylvan Primordial which received a Commander ban insuring it would never hold significant value. Interestingly enough, it never actually held significant value. It sat under $1 for pretty much its entire life in standard. The one shining star of casual appeal has been Chromatic Lantern which is pretty much a staple of every multicolor commander deck. From a $4 rotation price to a $8 price today, this card pretty much emblematizes a perfect rotation investment.  There’s a couple other slow growth, casual cards that are approaching double up territory including Worldspine Worm couple Thespian Stage. But for the most part there isn’t a lot of appealing cards for casual play out of these sets.

Conclusion


Moving forward it looks like rotation is not the top time to pickup long term specs. The vast majority of cards from RTR with long term value experienced a significant drop in price during peak supply in the 6 months following release. For most of these cards, this was the ideal time to pick up these cards. It would have provided two different times to out them at a profit. First is during a spike in the new standard season, the second was during a spike about a year after rotation.
Overall, I have gained a fear of trying to pick up cards at rotation for near market price. The inevitable trajactory for the majority of these cards seems to be down rather than up. I’m especially not interested in cards that were standard staples at rotation as most of them have dried up into to nothing and the few that held value often times have ended up at below rotation price.
If I were going to invest in cards for the long term, I likely would be looking at powerful sideboard cards that see play in modern and I would be looking to pick them up at peak supply rather than rotation. I’d also be looking at incredibly cheap casual cards with long term appeal or playability in numerous decks.


Specs to Look At over the next couple of months



Ceremonious Rejection - Uncommon - Kaladesh
This is an incredibly powerful card with long term appeal. It’s also unlikely to see a reprint in a non artifact/eldrazi set. This makes it both an eternal playable as well as a difficult card to reprint. These will be left around after drafts, pick them up.

Thalia, Heretic Cathar - Rare - Eldrich Moon
At just over $2 for an eternal playable card that probably isn’t getting any cheaper, isn’t seeing major play in standard, this is a pretty good deal. Could this be $4 in four years, easily. Could it be $8 at rotation, definitely if there’s a deck. Seems like a good buy.

Out of Favor Man Lands - Rare - SOI
While these will probably drop as we move towards rotation, it turns out rotation is suddenly next fall instead of in spring. This gives these cards another chance to spike before rotation as well as being a decent hold long term. Lumbering Falls is a $1.

Kaladesh Fast Lands - Rare - Kaladesh
I wouldn’t look at picking up these cards just yet. I’d say after Aether Revolt and before Ahmonket spoilers is your ideal point, that should be peak supply.. I’m not in at $5 on these cards but I think that they’ll continue to work their way down and there’s likely to be one or two that are out of favor at any given point. At $2 I think you buy them all and at $3 you should be good for a few playsets.

Radiant Flames - Rare - BFZ
This card is essentially free at 50 cents. As a decent sideboard card it’s worth questioning whether this will ever take the place of Anger of the Gods as a sideboard card in Modern. The flexibility as well as the lack of double red in the casting cost means that it is a likely option. It can also wreak havoc against token strategies while not blowing up all your own creatures. With the number of three color decks in modern it feels like a home could exist for this card but it hasn’t proven itself yet.

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Magic Judges - The Things We Say

I want to say before anything else that I’ve received huge amounts of support within the judge community. Every judge I’ve met has been awesome, skilled, entertaining, and unique. I have honestly felt support from the judge program like few other groups I’ve ever been in. It resembles my cohort in my Masters Program in the way we all pull together, but even more supportive as we are working on a communal goal (running a strong event) rather than an individual goal (graduating).

In most communities disruptions come not from intentional malice, but from how people choose to act, unknowing of how it affects others. The hurtful things we do and say are most commonly not intentional.  I want to bring up two instances of significantly hurtful things that took place at a GP last year. These hurtful things were done by two awesome people. My intent isn’t to call these people out for their actions, but instead to help us notice how much little things can affect how people, especially newer judges, perceive the actions of others. I want to note that I’ve had other positive interactions with the judges in the following examples and I try not to let the interactions in these examples cloud my view of them as both people and as judges, but I’m not perfect either.
Just to set the scene here, I’ve been a L1 for about 6 months, I’ve worked four Comp REL events including PTQs, a SCG Open, TCG States but this is my first GP. I managed to squeeze in to work a couple of days on sides, I’m crashing with another judge and I’ve even managed to make a couple of the judge events before the GP.  I’m assigned to on demand events and registration for the event and just enjoying the scene.

As sides wind down one evening I get pulled from the on demand events and handed off to the team sealed single elimination “grinders”. As a get directed to the flight I’m on by the team lead I have approximately the following conversation:
Me: As far as matches going to time, let me make sure I’ve got this right. When a match goes to time, there’s five extra turns, but because this is single –
TL: Wait, what level are you?
Me: Level 1.
TL: Next time lead with that. The way the end of round works is… (Then proceeded to explain the entire thing to me)
I just want to point out two things in this back and forth. The first, and probably most important, is that I wanted confirm my understanding was correct (which it was). I wasn’t seeking someone to explain to me how it was supposed to work; I was looking for an opportunity to confirm that I had it right (which I did). As most school teachers know, if a student says they’ve got it but can’t explain it back to you, they don’t really have it.

The second thing is that all asking my level did to me is reinforce the feeling that I was out of my depth here (which I wasn’t). This is a fear many L1s have at big events. I’m curious how differently the interaction might have gone if my response was “I’m a L2 but I’ve never worked a single elimination, timed, team sealed event.” In the end, my judge level shouldn’t dictate my ability to ask if what I know is correct. Nor should it dictate your answer to that question. If I’m right, then I should be confirmed, if I’m wrong I want to be taught. Instead I left the situation feeling like the kid who’s parents forced his older brother to drag him along to the bowling alley being told I need the bumpers put up.
The second instance was the following day and is in some ways less directly judge related but ended up with a very similar feeling for me. I was firing on demand events and an off duty judge approached for his event. I knew he was a judge because I’d seen him around over the course of the week but hadn’t ever been introduced I also knew, by the people he associated closely with, he was a notable fixture in the judging community. I had five of my eight players for the event so I had a one in three shot of getting his name right. I did what I always do when players walk up in this case and asked “Are you Brendan, or Jason, or…” My comment was met with a visible and audible sigh as the judge turned away from me and approached a judge that would recognize him. From their conversation I was able to pick up the judge’s name and mark him off on my list as present for my event.

Again, the message I received was here was loud and clear, “you don’t belong here.” I realize in perfect hindsight that the best way to handle this situation would have been for me to introduce myself noting that we hadn’t been introduced but that’s not normally how I proceed when I’m checking names to fire an event. It seems to me it would have been pretty easy to just tell me the correct name so I can get it checked off on my list.
I don’t believe the slight was intentional but these are two of the three moments I most clearly remember from judging the event several months later. Writing about this event still affects me emotionally. I was so excited to be judging my first GP, a goal I had set for myself at the beginning of the year and had spent countless hours working towards. To twice get the message from higher level judges that I didn’t belong or wasn’t part of the in crowd was incredibly hurtful.
I’m not entirely sure how my involvement in the judge program would have changed had it not been for the single comment of another judge that weekend. As I was packing up to leave after my shift a local judge told me “You’ve done a really good job this weekend and a lot of important people have noticed.” This is the moment of this GP that I run over and over in my head. This is the moment that drove me to go for level 2 and apply to the next GP. This is what locks people into the judge program.


It’s really important that we realize how impactful our comments and actions can be, especially when interacting with newer members of the judge community. From the outside the “GP Judges” appear as very elite and closed off group. I’ve been fortunate enough to learn that this isn’t the case, but I wonder how many judges we’ve lost because they got the message that they aren’t cool enough.

Friday, February 7, 2014

Born of the Gods Limited Set Review - Multicolored and Colorless

The other color set reviews can be found at the following links:
Black
Red
Green
White
Blue


For me, one of the best ways to make a profit and still enjoy playing Magic is to win events. In Limited events that means knowing what is good in a format and being able to able to accurately assess the value of cards. Everyone puts their own value on certain types of cards. Some favor removal over any creatures, others take any decent creature over removal. Some like expensive or late game cards and others prefer value for early tempo. While I can't adjust for your play style I can tell you what I happen to think of certain cards.

Limited Rating System

Everyone who evaluates cards uses a different system. Mine is 1-10 because I feel like it creates the easiest and most recognizable system. Using grades tends to provide some false associations; B- is a pretty lame grade in school but a pretty good card in magic. I also don't like using the 1-5 system because I'd rather say something is a five than a two point five.

10 - First pick and must play even if you have to splash it.
9 - Game winning card every time it hits the table.
8 - Bombs, top tier removal, and otherwise game defining creatures.
7 - Powerful creatures or amazingly efficient creatures, conditional removal.
6 - Solid creatures, expensive or highly restrictive removal, big play enchantments and artifacts.
5 - Core cards in your deck, on curve creatures, decent cards.
4 - Fallback cards that you'd rather not have in your deck but can fill in if needed. Cards that are too situational to main deck.
3 - Bad cards, cards that have too much risk and little reward.
2 - Really bad cards that barely do anything at all and aren't likely to impact the game in a meaningful way.
1 - A card with zero meaningful impact on Limited games of Magic.
Add-on Ratings
S - Sideboard cards. These will often be brought out of your board and are worth picking up over other things of their level because of their impact against certain match-ups.
+ - Better than the average card in this category but still not worth the step up to the next level.

Multicolored Uncommons

It’s worth noting that Multicolored cards generally require you to be in the two colors to establish an accurate value. Splashing for them is frequently dangerous and not advised in most circumstances. Also pack 1 pick 1 is a rough time to grab a multi-colored card because it sticks you into a single color pair on your first pick.

Ephara’s Enlightenment – 5
Uncommon
I feel like this is a tricky way to trigger heroic several times, but definitely not a bad one. On the first shot you get heroic and a +1/+1 counter. When you cast another creature you get to put it back on the next turn. The added benefit of flying means that I think this card is playable and will pull its weight. I like that it gives counters because they stick around even if something happens to the enchantment. Plus gaining evasion on a heroic guy is a nice bonus.

Fanatic of Xenagos – 5+
Uncommon
As a 3/3 for three with additional damage the turn you play him or a 4/4 he’s a pretty swanky three drop. A 3/3 with haste would probably cost you more so you’re already getting a bonus. This is just a really solid creature regardless of how the tribute goes. Either way he’s still a guy you want in red green.

Kiora’s Follower – 6+
Uncommon
Already being a bear we know she’s playable. But this card is beyond all accounts amazing. While at first glance this looks like a ramp card, the fact that it stays relevant the entire game makes it incredibly strong. On turn three you’re untapping a land for a four drop, on turn eight you’re untapping your Kraken to block with, or gaining another trigger on your Retraction Helix. My god this does everything.

Ragemonger – 5+
Uncommon
Considering that minotaurs never really did it for me in Theros I’m reluctant to say this guy sounds good. Having more three drop minotaurs will probably help and making your others easier to cast seems pretty nice. If you already have one on the board your next is only a two drop and all further minotaurs only cost colorless mana. This makes for an interesting minotaur ramp. But I still don’t see this as the tribal that is going to carry you through. Most of the minotaurs in this set are either rare or not that impressive.

Reap What is Sown - 5
Uncommon
Hmm. With Travel Preparations I got to do two creatures for one less mana, then I got to do it again to two creatures which were possibly the same for one more mana. This means the creature that it matters for grew twice and maybe I can make an irrelevant card more relevant by putting two 1/1 counters on it. This doesn’t do that. At best it is a bad Glorious Anthem. Instant speed is nice but you’ve really got to line up your blocks perfectly to make it work. I guess it’s playable as a combat trick and heroic enabler.

Siren of the Silent Song – 6
Uncommon
Considering Liliana’s Spectre is a pauper staple I can see this card going far in limited. The repeated discard effect on a flier can decimate an opponent’s hand pretty quickly. Even if you only get two or three discards you’re gaining huge card advantage. Paying three for a 2/1 flier isn’t great but they tend to be able to get in when nothing else can.

Multicolored Rares

Chromanticore – 2
Mythic
Just no.

Ephara, God of the Polis – 6+
Mythic
Ephara is actually one of my favorite gods because her ability is just plain useful. She is one of the few gods that actually takes steps to help you reach devotion. If you’re in blue and white you could do far worse than an enchantment that lets you draw a card every time you play a creature. Eventually that leads to turning her back into a creature and that’s pretty nice.

Karametra, God of the Harvests – 5
Mythic
If I was in white green I’m sure I’d run her, but I can’t really be that happy about ramp starting at five mana. Plus I only get the ramp when I cast a creature after her. I think any god is probably a five regardless if you’re in the colors just because of the large possible upside, but really this one might only be a four.

Kiora, the Crashing Wave – 8
Mythic
Having had the chance to play with Kiora a bit in constructed I think this card is amazing. Being able to blank their biggest guy while ticking up or simply providing additional ramp is very sweet. If they can’t deal with you quickly you basically get a win the game emblem in a few turns. The fact that she protects herself means that you can blank their biggest threat for as long as she lives. Even when she ends up dying after two or three turns she still feels like she’s done her fair share of work. In order for her to be a blank you need to be getting hit by two creatures you can’t deal with. At that point you’re likely to need more than a planeswalker to save you.

Mogis, God of Slaughter – 5+
At least Mogis does something impactful when your board is empty. He’s a four mana clock that says you’re going to die in the next five to ten turns. That isn’t terrible. However, that isn’t really enough. If you have the creatures to get him turned on he’s fine, but he doesn’t do much work on his own. Better than Karametra but only by a hair.

Phenax, God of Deception – 6
Mythic
As an alternate win condition, Phenax is pretty impressive. With a 40 card deck he can mill through a library pretty quickly. This makes him the king of board stalls but not much else. Even if you get him turned on it’s still probably better to mill away than attack. I’d say this’ll frequently be a three to five turn clock assuming you have some sort of decent blocker on the board, which isn’t bad but it clearly isn’t a direct threat either.

Xenagos, God of Revels - 7
Mythic
Is Xenagos really that good? Yes, yes he is. Even at five mana doubling the power and toughness of a creature is massive. Your 3/1 becomes a 6/4 when it attacks. You play some big six drop and get to attack with him right away as a 8/6 or something ridiculous. This has an immediate board impact and can turn any race into your favor. If you’re deep in the hole it won’t do much but an otherwise unremarkable creature can quickly become a game ending threat with Xenagos.

Colorless Uncommon

Gorgon’s Head – 5
Uncommon
Repeatable deathtouch is a pretty powerful tool. Considering you can move it around from attackers to blockers it’ll be able to pull some weight. I’m pretty sure I don’t want two of these in any deck but I’m pretty happy with one. Sometimes you just won’t have the creatures to put it on but turning your otherwise unremarkable two drop in to a Sedge Scorpion can save the day.

Pillar of War – 4+
Uncommon
With all the work Returned Phalanx did in Theros I’d expect this to make it into a fair number of decks. A 3/3 wall for three can do some decent blocking and it makes for an automatic target for a bestow. I think I’d rather have a creature that can attack but I can see running a couple of these to shore up my ground game early on if I felt I was lacking in three drops.

Siren Song Lyre – 5+
Uncommon
Tapping down creatures is a really powerful effect. Paying six mana and tapping one of your creatures in order to tap down your first guy is a bit harsh. But there are times where your opponent has a card you just don’t have an answer for and this can be that answer. As an insurance policy it seems decent but I’m still worried about running it in my main deck. Without a creature to stick it on it is worthless and it basically ties up both a creature and two mana for the rest of the game when I could probably just play another creature.

Springleaf Drum – 5
Uncommon
I think this card goes in every deck. With inspired running around this gives the only free trigger for it every turn. Any creature with inspired will trigger whenever you want them to if you have this card. Plus it provides both fixing and ramp at a pretty affordable cost. I think I’d even happily run two because of how quickly it would let me start playing big creatures. As a Modern and Pauper staple card this is something that will do good work in any deck so long as you’re playing, you know, creatures.

Colorless Rare

Astral Cornucopia – 5
Rare
Considering that Darksteel Ingot saw play and this is a multicolored set I can’t imagine leaving this card out of a deck just for the ramp effect. It also allows for an additional splash which is nice. But overall it’s just mana fixing and ramp combo which doesn’t do much else. I also don’t ever see casting this for six unless I’m just plain out of things to do.

Hero’s Podium – 2
Rare
This is a constructed card and not a very good one at that. Considering this is one of the three rares you’re likely to open and Legendary creatures only come out at Rare or Mythic most of the time the chance you’ll ever be able to use this to positive effect is pretty low. If somehow you get two legendary creatures in your deck you still need to spend five mana to cast plus another five or so mana to dig for a creature. That’s ten mana to possibly get one of your legendary creatures into your hand. It doesn’t even cast it.

Temple of Enlightenment, Temple of Malice, Temple of Plenty – 5+
Rare
Considering that we’re seeing temples played in Standard even in mono-colored decks I think that using a temple to replace a Plains is just fine. If it matches your colors I’d definitely pick it up ahead of any generally playable card. Plus it’s sure to be worth between one and two tickets. Even it only matches one color I think it’s still a pretty easy pickup just for the free scry.

Born of the Gods Limited Set Review - Blue


For me, one of the best ways to make a profit and still enjoy playing Magic is to win events. In Limited events that means knowing what is good in a format and being able to able to accurately assess the value of cards. Everyone puts their own value on certain types of cards. Some favor removal over any creatures, others take any decent creature over removal. Some like expensive or late game cards and others prefer value for early tempo. While I can't adjust for your play style I can tell you what I happen to think of certain cards.

The other color set reviews can be found at the following links:
Black
Red
Green
White
Multicolored and Colorless

Limited Rating System

Everyone who evaluates cards uses a different system. Mine is 1-10 because I feel like it creates the easiest and most recognizable system. Using grades tends to provide some false associations; B- is a pretty lame grade in school but a pretty good card in magic. I also don't like using the 1-5 system because I'd rather say something is a five than a two point five.

10 - First pick and must play even if you have to splash it.
9 - Game winning card every time it hits the table.
8 - Bombs, top tier removal, and otherwise game defining creatures.
7 - Powerful creatures or amazingly efficient creatures, conditional removal.
6 - Solid creatures, expensive or highly restrictive removal, big play enchantments and artifacts.
5 - Core cards in your deck, on curve creatures, decent cards.
4 - Fallback cards that you'd rather not have in your deck but can fill in if needed. Cards that are too situational to main deck.
3 - Bad cards, cards that have too much risk and little reward.
2 - Really bad cards that barely do anything at all and aren't likely to impact the game in a meaningful way.
1 - A card with zero meaningful impact on Limited games of Magic.
Add-on Ratings
S - Sideboard cards. These will often be brought out of your board and are worth picking up over other things of their level because of their impact against certain match-ups.
+ - Better than the average card in this category but still not worth the step up to the next level.

Blue Common/Uncommon

Aerie Worshippers – 5+
Uncommon
While some of the pieces of inspired dude factory aren’t impressive, getting a 2/2 flying bird for 2U isn’t bad. At 2/4 I feel you’re much more likely to be able to make an attack than with lower power and toughness making untapping a worshiper far more likely. Plus getting a token with evasion is far more powerful than a couple of 1/1 mans. Inspired still seems more like a bonus than a reality though and this is a 2/4 for for.

Archetype of Imagination – 6+
Uncommon
Levitation is bad at 2UU. A 3/2 on top of Levitation for 1U more is better. But the fact that this almost makes all your creatures unblockble is huge. It does make Reach a more valuable ability in this set but suddenly picking up your entire board and being able to ship it over unhindered can easily win you board stalls. The only problem here is that if you drop him on a pretty empty board he is just a 3/2 flier. We happily paid 3UU for Messenger Drake it seems likely we’d pay one more to add the Trained Condor plus effect.

Chorus of the Tides – 5+
Common
Speaking of 3/2 fliers, here’s one that costs two less mana. This heroic ability is actually the worst heroic ability I’ve seen yet. I’d never burn the spell just to do it –but if I’m going to bestow onto my flier anyway, getting a free scry one isn’t bad. I think I’ll be happy to play chorus of the tides as blue fliers looks like it could have a solid impact.

Crypsis – 5
This still isn’t Gods Willing but it is blue and it does untap a creature and allow you to make a possible two for one. Seems legit so long as you have bigger creatures, which isn’t blue’s strength. I feel like this is card is a fine combat trick but doesn’t handle a threat unless you have something to block with that has deathtouch. With Baleful Eidolon or Dredge Scorpion this card goes up significantly. But on its own I’m not very impressed.

Deepwater Hypnotist – 5
Common
2/1s two drops are generally fine but unexciting. The bonus of giving a temporary Sensory Deprivation on untap may be significant if you get to attack with him once, you’re likely to be able to continue doing so. Again, inspired is more of a bonus in this case, but a 2/1 for two is still playable.

Divination – 5
Common
Drawing cards in Theros always felt like I was just fishing for more land to be able to cast some of my bigger creatures. With a decent number of two casting cost creatures I fear that Divination may be a dangerous play in a lot of games. If you do nothing on turn two and your opponent plays a creature, then you Divination on turn three and they play three drop, you’re in pretty bad shape. That said, gaining card advantage is still going to be important in the late game.

Eternity Snare – 6
Uncommon
Cantrip Claustrophobia probably sounds better than it is. At six mana plus failing to tap the creature you’ve enchanted I’m not convinced that this card is really going to save you. It’s also not like you’ll be able to turn around and cast the card you’ve drawn until the next turn. But cantrips are still pretty nice and removal (even bad expensive removal) is still removal.

Evanescent Intellect – 2
Common
It’s a mill enchantment aura. That is so bad. Millstone wasn’t terrible but it was a straight up artifact. I know this is intended to go on something with Inspired or heroic but it just looks terrible for either of those purposes. Maybe I’m wrong but this cycle looks like they’ll all be sitting in the sideboard and never seeing play.

Flitterstep Eidolon – 5+
Uncommon
1/1 unblockable for two is fine; it makes for a great bestow target to hand out some continual damage. Being able to pitch it onto your big beasty for 5U is also pretty good because you have an unstoppable threat. Overall this guy is fine but he doesn’t do much on his own. Unlike several of the better bestow cards in Theros giving a pretty weak bonus doesn’t turn your non threat into a big threat. If you have to drop this on a 2/3 for six mana you aren’t exactly thrilled with the results.

Floodtide Serpent – 5
Common
Vanilla test says fine. I honestly can’t tell if this is a drawback or an advantage. Fortunately, it’s a cost not a trigger so Missed Trigger penalties don’t apply. Technically I’d say it is a drawback but being able to pitch your unattached bestow creatures into your hand is pretty nice at the best times. At the worst times you’ve got a 4/4 blocker. Sea Serpent was frequently playable primarily as a strong defender and 4/4s will block a lot of incoming threats. I’m thinking he’ll see play and be an acceptable creature most of the time.

Kraken of the Straits -5
Uncommon
A big dumb creature that can’t be double-blocked for the kill seems pretty decent. 6/6 uncommon is fine, even for seven mana. There isn’t a lot of downside here except for the seven casting cost, but when a 6/6 with moderate evasion is your reward, you’re pretty happy. Do I want more than one? Probably not, but I’m fine with the first one at the top of my curve.

Meletis Astronomer - 5
Uncommon
1/3s for two often do much more work than we expect them to. There is a lot of 2/1s and 2/3s running around in the set which makes the 1/3 body  pretty important. Again, the mediocre heroic trigger means that I’m not thrilled with blowing a spell just to trigger heroic but if you’re already going to bestow or combat trick a guy, the upside is pretty decent. I think most of the time I’m playing a 1/3 for two more than I’m looking to rip enchantments out of my library.

Nullify – 5
Common
I’d generally run two Essence Scatters if I had them. I think nullify fits into that same mold. The UU instead of 1U is a bit of a downside because often times I’d end up using my Essence Scatter on turn three or four when I didn’t have a play. I can’t really guarantee that I have the mana at that point. With so many bestow creatures floating around I think Nullify is still decent, but not impressive.

Nyxborn Triton – 6
Common
When I look at bestow creatures the first thing I look at is what happens if I cast them as creatures. 2/3 for three is a perfectly fine minotaur that is fair but not exciting. The next thing I look at is how much longer do I need to wait to bestow it. In this case, I’m bestowing two mana later and getting 2/3 which bumps any card from just a card to a bomb. Even better, when they kill that guy I’m left with a 2/3 which isn’t insignificant. I think this Triton will see plenty of play and will always do good work on the field.

Oracle’s Insight - 7 
Uncommon
You know how I said that the tap ability enchantments were lame. I wasn’t talking about this card. As a note, this card almost says “Tap a creature, scry 1, draw a card” which almost feels acceptable for four mana. But instead it lets you do this every turn. This card is insane. On any target with Inspired it is just plain bonkers.  If this stays on the field for a few turns, you win. Occasionally you’ll get blown out but that’s a risk with any enchantment.  Don’t forget you can activate it the turn you play it unless the creature is summoning sick. Or wait until their turn. While this is a great card you need to make sure you have threats in your deck that are worth digging for. If you have the option, you may just have to take a strong creature to actually have threats instead of this card.

Retraction Helix – 6
Common
This almost says “tap a creature you control and Disperse” but not quite. For one mana I’m a big fan. Considering this can be done after blockers are declared to remove an aura the number of tricks this card can play is fantastic. It also triggers heroic and will trigger inspired.

Siren of the Fanged Coast – 6+
Uncommon
Nine out of ten times, this is a 4/4 flier for five, very Serra Angel. That one other time this card may be pretty bad. This is one of the few cards when the either/or from Tribute may not work out in your favor. If their board is weak, you get to steal their best creature, which may not be much. Then you’re stuck with a 1/1 flier and their mana dork for five. The backfire issue is there but this is still a pretty solid card.

Sphinx's Disciple – 5+ 
Common
When we played Messenger Drake we were at least guaranteed a replacement card when it died. This is more of a flying Scroll Thief which seems pretty good until you see you’re paying five mana for a 2/2. When the air is open this is a great card. But if there’s much of anything else up there it’s not going to do much for you. But once you pull ahead with card draw, you’re sitting pretty good.

Stratus Walk - 5
Common
This is several times better than Flight. You still get a card back which is pretty nice but I'm not thrilled with it overall. It's good for both Heroic and Inspired. But overall it is not fantastic. I'm curious if the card replacement gives it more valuable than I'm giving it but it is still just a not very good aura. I might find myself happy to throw this in to my deck as a 22nd and 23rd card simply to up my speed through my deck.

Sudden Storm - 4+
Common
Slow Frost Breath with scry. If you've got the solid aggressive deck or the big bestow creature it's pretty good as you can get in for two turns. But in most regular decks this is still just a bad card. I hate having to use cards like this to do nothing but punt for two turns.

Thassa's Rebuff - 4
Uncommon
This card has some really good possible upside in the right deck. If you're heavy blue it's fantastic. Lots of the time your opponent can't afford to pay three more mana to cast their big spells. Used on a card on curve it is pretty nice, once you're late in the game it can just get pretty bad. All in all it's really risky. It might find a home in some Mono-Blue.

Vortex Elemental – 5
Uncommon
This looks like a bad removal to me. So long as you’re able to block something you can basically throw it back into your deck and later end up drawing a creature that doesn’t really do anything on its own. It can deal with a big threat which may mean you need to side board it in against something you just don’t have an answer for, but you are just going to see it and whatever you send back into your opponent’s library again. The forced block cost is too high to expect to be able to hit two creatures and it doesn’t do anything against creatures with any form of evasion. Bad removal is still removal.

Blue Rare

Arbiter of the Ideal - 8
Rare
Rarely do you not attack with a 4/5 flier. That makes untapping it very likely though not a sure thing. At slightly weaker than a Mahamoti Djinn this card is a solid bomb. If it becomes the engine that keeps on giving you’ll just keep playing creatures and you’re unstoppable. It is a bit of a win more card since you already need to be in a position that you can attack with a 4/5 flier but the fact that it likely provides back end cover when you’re attacking makes it feel really solid.

Fated Infatuation – 5
Rare
While this card is great a triple blue casting cost is pretty scary to me. I’d expect to see it landing in mono-blue decks just fine but if you have to wait until 6 mana to get your third blue source, the three casting cost clone really groundbreaking. Being able to get a clone and scry two is pretty good, so is instant speed clone. I’m just not sure how many decks want to run a UUU anything.

Mindreaver – 4
Rare
While I think Mindreaver is a very interesting card, I think it falls drastically short in Limited. The fact that you don’t get to rip three off the top when you cast Mindreaver and start off with some valid targets is a really big downside, especially in limited. Plus, how many doubles do people end up with, even in draft decks. You might have a couple of two ofs in your deck, maybe you got lucky and pulled three of a common. But as it is this guy is really just a 2/1 for UU which isn’t great but works in a pinch.

Perplexing Chimera – 5+
Rare
The number of people that simply won’t be able to follow how this creature works will be huge. I think this card belongs in the Judgebringer deck because of all the problems it causes. That said, it basically shuts your opponent down until they cast something you want. Then it shuts you down. As the last card out of your hand it is the best insurance policy around. They can’t even really kill it. Though deciding when to use it will be a huge skill play. I want this to be an 8, but it's just not.

Tromokratis – 7+
Rare
The king of board stalls, Tromokratis is really an all or nothing card. It sits like a big wall and can prevent your opponent from trying to dink away at you with a flier. Remember, all creatures means All creatures so this goes horrible with any RTR block guys with Unleash. He’s a big dumb guy that can’t be chump blocked so he’ll make an impact on the field no matter what.

Whelming Wave – 6
Rare
An overloaded Cyclonic Rift with some possible advantages looks pretty cool. Sorcery speed is a bit of a bummer but at only four mana it can fix some overloaded board states and really take some action onto a Voltron your opponent has created. It seems like I’d want this in my deck even if I didn’t have any of the left behind creatures just to solve problems I have no other answer for.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Born of the Gods Limited Set Review - White


For me, one of the best ways to make a profit and still enjoy playing Magic is to win events. In Limited events that means knowing what is good in a format and being able to able to accurately assess the value of cards. Everyone puts their own value on certain types of cards. Some favor removal over any creatures, others take any decent creature over removal. Some like expensive or late game cards and others prefer value for early tempo. While I can't adjust for your play style I can tell you what I happen to think of certain cards.

The other color set reviews can be found at the following links:
Black
Red
Green
Blue
Multicolored and Colorless

Limited Rating System

Everyone who evaluates cards uses a different system. Mine is 1-10 because I feel like it creates the easiest and most recognizable system. Using grades tends to provide some false associations; B- is a pretty lame grade in school but a pretty good card in magic. I also don't like using the 1-5 system because I'd rather say something is a five than a two point five.
10 - First pick and must play even if you have to splash it.
9 - Game winning card every time it hits the table.
8 - Bombs, top tier removal, and otherwise game defining creatures.
7 - Powerful creatures or amazingly efficient creatures, conditional removal.
6 - Solid creatures, expensive or highly restrictive removal, big play enchantments and artifacts.
5 - Core cards in your deck, on curve creatures, decent cards.
4 - Fallback cards that you'd rather not have in your deck but can fill in if needed. Cards that are too situational to main deck.
3 - Bad cards, cards that have too much risk and little reward.
2 - Really bad cards that barely do anything at all and aren't likely to impact the game in a meaningful way.
1 - A card with zero meaningful impact on Limited games of Magic.
Add-on Ratings
S - Sideboard cards. These will often be brought out of your board and are worth picking up over other things of their level because of their impact against certain match-ups.
+ - Better than the average card in this category but still not worth the step up to the next level.

White Common/Uncommon

 Acolyte’s Reward - 6+
Uncommon
The ability to pull a two for one with this card seems really high. Even if you’re stuck blocking a bigger creature than you’re capable of killing initially it allows you remove up. This is a pretty good removal spell that could also lead to some end of game scenarios when you get hit with a big alpha strike. I think this is a solid card you’re going to want in your white decks. Removal and save your guy is pretty swanky.

Akroan Phalanx - 6
Uncommon
Vanilla test this guy comes back decent. Paying four for a 3/3 vigilance is pretty decent, the upside if you happen to be red is pretty significant. Obviously in the RW aggro deck this guy is a pretty sweet cleanup card. I’m sure he’ll do work in any deck and may cause me to splash a single mountain if the cards fall right.

Akroan Skyguard - 6+
Common
Everything that Wingsteed Rider did in Theros will probably be done by the Skyguard. Paying one less white for one less power and toughness feels significant because without any pants to put on the Skyguard he’s not really posing an air threat. But the ability to get him into play a turn earlier and find an enchantment to get on him makes him a very strong card. Generally when my Wingsteed Riders are doing work they’re 5/5s or more so being a point of power and toughness down won’t be an issue most of the time. Evasion and heroic is a great combo.

Archetype of Courage - 7
Uncommon
Giving all of your creatures first strike just seems insane. Doing so on a 2/2 for 3 is fantastic. There isn’t a huge number of other cards with first strike that you’ll be canceling out with this Archetype but giving two or three other creatures first strike can turn a bad board into a good one really quickly. This Archetype won’t bring you back from the brink though. Dropping a 2/2 first strike onto an empty board is going to leave you feeling pretty disappointed.

Dawn to Dusk - 5
Uncommon
With all the bestow creatures in this set I’m pretty sure you’re going to happily find a target for this card every time you cast it. If I’m going to run an enchantment removal anyway playing one that can get me a refund card as an added bonus is nice. I doubt I’m casting my enchantment removal on turn two anyway so waiting a little bit doesn’t hurt too much. It is sorcery speed but as a two for one it’s pretty decent.

Elite Skirmisher – 4
Common
I’m not very impressed with short term heroic abilities for the most part, especially not on a three drop. 3/1 for three is pretty bad already. Having to throw a spell on him to get him to tap someone down isn’t really a redeeming quality. He does trade nicely (though at three mana it’s not really trading up) and sometimes being able to tap someone down for that final swing is important, but I’m not seeking to put him in my deck.

Ephara’s Radiance – 3
Common
It’s an enchantment, that gives life gain. This has two things that are significant negatives. Where’s my draw a card here? I’m not saying that I’d play it with it, but I wouldn’t feel as insulted by the power. Three life per turn is insignificant, but neither is a card, two mana a turn, and tapping a creature. This card asks a lot and doesn’t give much back.

Excoriate – 6
Common
Good removal is fantastic. Exiling is better. Most creatures tap when they attack. I like removal. Removal feels awkward in this set much like it did in Theros making any source of removal very important. The more I read this card the less I like it. Sorcery speed removal of a tapped creature means that it has to hit you before you can kill it. Don’t get me wrong. I’m playing Excoriate in my deck, I just wish it was better.

Ghostblade Eidolon – 7
Uncommon
Wasn’t Two-Headed Cerberus 1RR? This guy is 2W and comes with bestow. Six is a lot to pay for bestow, but when you’re adding double strike you’re probably getting what you pay for. Unfortunately when he falls off you need to find something else to give him to really make him shine, but double strike is a super powerful mechanic that demands an answer.

Glimpse the Sun God – 4+
Uncommon
I think this card is playable but I have trouble seeing it as very good. Cards like Frost Breath don’t always get played because they really demand an aggressive deck in which the tapping card is a finisher. I haven’t seen that early aggressive deck out of Theros block like I did out of Innistrad or Zendikar. Most decks in Theros got really aggressive early with cards like Ordeal of Thassa on a weak creature outpacing the opponent. Tapping down their creatures doesn’t matter if yours is already bigger.

God-Favored General – 4
Uncommon
Without finding a good way to tap this guy I’m not sure what I’m supposed to do with him. I don’t want to fall into the trap of playing him and Ephara’s Radiance to try to get off a combo that gives me two 1/1 soldiers and three life for five mana every turn. Even if I can attack with him the turn on turn three, I basically need to blow my entire turn four to get two 1/1 soldiers.  I want this guy to be good so bad but at 1/1 I don’t feel like I have enough ways to tap him to make do good work.

Great Hart – 4
Common
2/4 for four has never been good. But it is a creature that fits into the curve. Pillarfield Ox barely made it into decks in M14 which had very few good white creatures. I see some better white creatures in Born of the Gods so I assume that the elk-ox probably will see some play but never happily.

Griffin Dreamfinder – 4+
Common
There is so much to like about this card it’s a shame that he’s just not very good. Paying five mana for a 1/4 flier isn’t going to impress me, especially with double white. Getting an enchantment card back from your graveyard isn’t nothing though, especially when it comes with a fine beast to place it on. Turning the 1/4 into a 3/6 makes for a pretty serious air born threat. Considering that Auramancer can do some work maybe we’ll see this guy make a showing. But five mana is a lot more than three.

Hold at Bay – 3
Common
This is not Gods Willing. It never will be. It’ll save your creature or counter some damage to the face, but much like life gain you don’t win by preventing damage, you win by doing it.

Loyal Pegasus – 5+
Common
2/1 flying for one is pretty amazing really. Any aggro strategy is going to love this guy. But if he’s your only guy in the air he can’t actually block anything flying and can’t attack. I think you’d be happy to run 4 of these, but less happy to run one. You just really need to look at your overall strategy for attacking early to see where if the Pegasus fits in.

Mortal’s Ardor – 4+
Common
Combat tricks for one are pretty good. But I like them when they look more like Giant Growth. I also don’t feel that lifelink is great on a combat trick. You generally use tricks to squeak out a card. Rarely is it for big damage. So a +1/+1 for one just isn’t very impressive.

Nyxborn Shieldmate – 4
Common
It’s Holy Strength, only it’s not. Honestly I think Divine Favor is probably a better card. Being left with a 1/2 when someone drops your enchanted creature isn’t really a bonus. I actually think this card is pretty bad. As a three cost bestow I’m not impressed, as a creature I’m not impressed. I don’t really want him in my deck. Unless I've got my hoard of Skyguards to bestow upon.

Oreskos Sun Guide – 5
Common
Bears are bears. Bears that gain you life when they attack are better bears. Bears look like they’ll play a role in this set because there’s a number of low casting cost creatures. The only problem is, few of them are any good. If you get in with Sun Guide a couple of times it makes for a pretty good card. But most of the time he’s just going to be a bear.

Ornitharch – 6+
Uncommon
3/3 flier for five is decent. 5/5 is great. Getting two 1/1s isn’t bad either. This is one of the tribute cards that actually feels like a tossup. If your opponent has other fliers you’ may find yourself getting blocked out and having the extra two birdies won’t matter much. If your opponent has removal to get rid of you, you’ll be one big creature. But either way, they better have an answer because you’re getting five power in the sky.

Revoke Existence – 4S
Common
I’m debating if this card is worth trying to run main deck. There aren’t the artifacts to make it matter but there are lots of enchantment creatures. It looks like about half of the creatures are enchantment creatures. Running one enchantment removal in Theros was fine and I think that this is likely to be a good choice. But it is still slow and only kills enchantments. It’s no Doom Blade.

Sunbond – 4
Uncommon
Four mana enchantments ask a lot. This is Mark of the Vampire territory. Gaining life wasn’t super easy in Theros and I don’t expect it to be getting much easier. Without a lot of creatures with lifelink I’m not sold that I want Sunbond in my deck. Unless I have a handful of Hopeful Eidolons or a couple of Gray Merchant of Asphodel but even then, this is a four mana enchantment that doesn’t do anything. On the flip side I’m sure I’ll get blown out by this card more than once. When things come together on this card it is unstoppable.

Vanguard of Brimaz – 6
Uncommon
Everything I don’t like about Akroan Crusader seems to be fixed in his newest incarnation. A 2/2 for two is much better than a 1/1 for one. Crusader ended up decent because of the number of possible bestow targets, plus Dragon Mantle and Titan's Strength. I think Vanguard will do well also.

White Rares

Brimaz, King of Oreskos – 8+
Mythic
Brimaz is nuts. First off getting a 3/4 vigilance for three is the best deal in the set. We were excited to see Boon Satyr at 4/2 flash for three. Here we’ve got vigilance plus pumping out guys, guys with vigilance. When I compare this guy to Ajani, Caller of the Pride I see a lot more problems for an opponent from Brimaz. Three turns later you’ve done up to 15 damage and have a swarm of little catlings.

Eidolon of Countless Battles – 8
Rare
While the floor on Eidolon is pretty low, getting a 1/1 for three, if you have any kind of board presence this card gets dangerous quick. At only a four bestow cost (we’re talking Hopeful Eidolon speed here) you’re guaranteed a +2/+2 with a likelihood of seeing  +4 or +5 pretty easily. The best thing is that even if your opponent kills the creature, you get all of the bonus minus one in the creature when it falls off.  This is the closest we’ve seen bestow and casting cost on a card before. I don’t think we’ll see this being cast as a creature very often.

Fated Retribution – 4
Rare
Planar Cleansing was basically playable in M14 at six casting cost and triple white. This is instant speed but seven mana is a ton to ask in limited. The scry is a nice bonus but I don’t think this will be making it into most decks. Generally problem creatures come in the form of some guy Voltroned up with bestow creatures. This just kills all your creatures and gives them a swarm of guys that fall off. I don’t think it solves any real problems and I don’t expect it to find a home.

Hero of Iroas – 6+
Rare
As a 2/2 heroic for two I’m pretty happy with this hero. I see the decreased cost in auras as a bonus, possibly a significant one, but not an overpowered one. This card seems good, but not broken. It basically provides a little ramp into your bestows and is a solid early creature on top of that. I think it might be a toss up between this and Skyguard for the evasion.

Plea for Guidance – 4
Rare
Six mana tutors seem excessive. This card feels a lot like Opportunity without the instant speed. You can pull up your two best bestow creatures this way but you’re spending the entire turn to do it. You’ll probably spend your next turn casting one of them and the following turn casting the other. Of course, at that point you’re probably going to win the game. But you’ve had to tap out for three turns in a row to get there. Maybe the format will end up slow enough that this card will matter. We don’t get the big monstrosity creatures in Born of the Gods like we did in Theros so maybe you’ll get to the late game and not have anywhere to better to spend your mana.

Silent Sentinel – 6
Rare
Like many bombs, the cost is the primary consideration. Paying seven mana for anything is scary. Only getting a 4/6 is a little sad. But once the air is clear you’re likely to start causing some real damage. Well, kind of likely. You see you need enchantments in the graveyard, which by seven mana isn’t really hard to do. But enchantment creatures can’t come back bestowed, which is most of your enchantments. That doesn’t mean the card is bad but I think I’m likely to be underwhelmed whenever I finally get this card onto the field. It’s big, has evasion and a good ability, but there’s many other cards that I feel will help me win earlier on.

Spirit of the Labyrinth – 5+
Rare
This is clearly a constructed card. It is entirely possible you’ll be rare drafting it anyway as it can cause some significant problems for most of the big decks in standard and brings a pretty solid 3/1 body to the table. In limited the ability is basically useless. You may blank someone’s Divination but you aren’t going to do things like shut down a Sphinx’s Revelation. That said, a 3/1 for two is really solid and will make any deck happily.